Card volatility rating
Our index ranking every Premier League team by disciplinary volatility, 2026/27 and beyond. An FMS proprietary metric.
Ranking
Card Volatility Rating scores how card-heavy a team’s Premier League matches have been, 0 to 100, from its cards per game, its share of 4+ card matches, its away form and its late cards.
| # | Team | CVR | Scale 0–100 | Band | Breakdown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Chelsea | 61.4 | High | ||
| 2 |  Ipswich Town | 59.6 | High | ||
| 3 |  Hull City | 56.4 | High | ||
| 4 |  AFC Bournemouth | 53.4 | Medium | ||
| 5 |  Fulham | 50.8 | Medium | ||
| 6 |  Aston Villa | 49.4 | Medium | ||
| 7 |  Nottingham Forest | 48.8 | Medium | ||
| 8 |  Sunderland | 48.7 | Medium | ||
| 9 |  Brighton & Hove Albion | 48.3 | Medium | ||
| 10 |  Tottenham Hotspur | 46.9 | Medium | ||
| 11 |  Manchester United | 46.3 | Medium | ||
| 12 |  Brentford | 46.2 | Medium | ||
| 13 |  Liverpool | 46.0 | Medium | ||
| 14 |  Crystal Palace | 45.4 | Medium | ||
| 15 |  Arsenal | 44.9 | Medium | ||
| 16 |  Leeds United | 44.6 | Medium | ||
| 17 |  Everton | 44.3 | Medium | ||
| 18 |  Newcastle United | 43.0 | Medium | ||
| 19 |  Manchester City | 41.2 | Low | ||
| 20 |  Coventry City | 35.4 | Low |
Open a row for its breakdown and the number of matches behind it. Ratings count only matches with card data, which is patchy before 2025/26. A match without data is left out, never counted as 0 cards.
How CVR works
Card Volatility Rating scores how card-heavy a team’s Premier League matches have been, 0 to 100, from its cards per game, its share of 4+ card matches, its away form and its late cards.
Five weighted factors: yellows and reds per game, the share of matches with 4+ cards, how many more cards a team gets away than at home, and the share of its cards in the final 20 minutes. Scores sit on a fixed 0–100 scale. The bands below come from the last two seasons’ team ratings: High is where the top fifth started, Low where the bottom fifth ended.
Until a team has 10 matches with card data, this season’s rating is blended with last season’s final one by matches played: after 7, this season counts 70% and last season 30%. Promoted teams have no Premier League rating to blend and show this season alone.
A match preview bands the average of the two teams’ ratings. In 2025/26, of the 330 matches where both sides had played five or more, the 52 whose two teams averaged 54 or more before kick-off produced 4.5 cards a game, with 4+ cards in two of three (65%); the other 278 averaged 3.9, with 4+ in 56%. That pattern is about total cards and booking points; Low and Medium pairings did not differ, and CVR says nothing about red cards, one player’s card or the result.
Card minutes start in 2025/26, so for a range reaching further back the late-card share counts 2025/26-on matches only, and a single season before 2025/26 has none. The other four factors use every season in the range.
- High
- 54–100
- The most card-heavy fifth of team-seasons
- Medium
- 43–53.9
- The middle three fifths
- Low
- 0–42.9
- The least card-heavy fifth
How we count cards
- Player cards only. Cards shown to managers and coaching staff don’t count.
- A second yellow counts as one yellow and one red. With the first booking, a player sent off for two yellows adds two yellows and one red.
- A straight red counts as one red.
The same rule applies everywhere on the site (match stats, team card averages, previews and the match finder) for every match with card-by-card data, which starts in 2025/26. Bookmakers settle card markets by their own rules, so check them before you bet.