Card volatility rating
Our index ranking every Premier League team by disciplinary volatility, 2026/27 and beyond. An FMS proprietary metric.
Ranking
Card Volatility Rating scores how card-heavy a team’s Premier League matches have been, 0 to 100, from its cards per game, its share of 4+ card matches, its away form and its late cards.
No CVR scores for this range
A rating needs matches with card data in the range. Ratings are recomputed every Monday.
Open a row for its breakdown and the number of matches behind it. Ratings count only matches with card data, which is patchy before 2025/26. A match without data is left out, never counted as 0 cards.
How CVR works
Card Volatility Rating scores how card-heavy a team’s Premier League matches have been, 0 to 100, from its cards per game, its share of 4+ card matches, its away form and its late cards.
Five weighted factors: yellows and reds per game, the share of matches with 4+ cards, how many more cards a team gets away than at home, and the share of its cards in the final 20 minutes. Scores sit on a fixed 0–100 scale. The bands below come from the last two seasons’ team ratings: High is where the top fifth started, Low where the bottom fifth ended.
Until a team has 10 matches with card data, this season’s rating is blended with last season’s final one by matches played: after 7, this season counts 70% and last season 30%. Promoted teams have no Premier League rating to blend and show this season alone.
A match preview bands the average of the two teams’ ratings. In 2025/26, of the 330 matches where both sides had played five or more, the 52 whose two teams averaged 54 or more before kick-off produced 4.5 cards a game, with 4+ cards in two of three (65%); the other 278 averaged 3.9, with 4+ in 56%. That pattern is about total cards and booking points; Low and Medium pairings did not differ, and CVR says nothing about red cards, one player’s card or the result.
Card minutes start in 2025/26, so for a range reaching further back the late-card share counts 2025/26-on matches only, and a single season before 2025/26 has none. The other four factors use every season in the range.
- High
- 54–100
- The most card-heavy fifth of team-seasons
- Medium
- 43–53.9
- The middle three fifths
- Low
- 0–42.9
- The least card-heavy fifth
How we count cards
- Player cards only. Cards shown to managers and coaching staff don’t count.
- A second yellow counts as one yellow and one red. With the first booking, a player sent off for two yellows adds two yellows and one red.
- A straight red counts as one red.
The same rule applies everywhere on the site (match stats, team card averages, previews and the match finder) for every match with card-by-card data, which starts in 2025/26. Bookmakers settle card markets by their own rules, so check them before you bet.